Lunes, Disyembre 9, 2013

One Festival. 2014. Manila, Philippines.




One is a rock music festival originally planned for April 2010 but was shelved due to the postponement of the Hazards Mapping and Environment Summit (HMES) 2010 - a sister project.

The HMES project is now revived and rescheduled to December 8-16, 2014, before the March conference in Sendai, Miyagi Prefecture of the United Nations called the UN Third World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction.

On the fifth day of the hazards mapping and environment conference, One will be staged at Rizal Park, Manila beginning at past 5:00 pm Saturday, December 13, 2014 until the next day Sunday December 14, 2014.

One of the unique features of One is the use of biometric tickets, the technology for which will be negotiated up to final contract with a provider from the United Kingdom.


One is a concern of Center for Human and Society (Centre di Humanes et Societas, Inc.) a non-profit organization registered in the Philippines. The organizer's advocacy is pushing for and actively participating in the creation of resettlement sites far away from the ground zero where thousands of Tacloban City residents died as well as building Memorials for those that died in the places where the remains of those that passed away during the Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Haiyan codenamed Yolanda. These memorials will be where the relatives of those that died can express grief for their family, loved ones and bosom friends.

The targeted resettlements are within Leyte or off-island, with a choice of several areas that offer jobs, education for the children as well as other amenities.

One was conceived many years ago in 1987 after the period of transition in government in the Philippines called the People Power Revolution.

Related sites:





Contact Us

campaigns@centrehumanes.org
onefestival@centrehumanes.org

Huwebes, Disyembre 5, 2013

Letter to the UN Secretary General on 2014 Summit

Open Letter to the United Nations


December 1, 2013

HIS EXCELLENCY
BAN KI MOON
Secretary General
The United Nations
UN Headquarters
First Avenue at 46th Street
New York, NY 10017
USA


Dearest Secretary General Ban:


Our warmest greetings!

Since our initial advocacy in 2009 following Ketsana, a large number of catastrophes have already occurred around the world. In most of these disasters, a large number of people say nothing could have been done. No one can predict calamity. The most recent is tropical cyclone Haiyan aka Yolanda of which no less than five thousand could have survived, had our original intention to hold a conference on mapping and building a decently sized GIS on topics related to disasters and for better forecasting.


Out of this advocacy we determined to hold a hazards mapping and environment summit in April 2010 and held back the plan due to unforeseen causes.

We have decided to discard our plan to have our original sponsors support the event and to depend upon Philippine leaders for supporting the event to its completion. In light of the holding of the Third World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction in Sendai, Japan in March 2015, we propose to hold the hazards mapping conference in Manila from 8:00 AM December 4, 2014 up to 3: PM December 12, 2014 to be culminated with a benefit event at the end of the conference. We envision that the hazards mapping will enhance the 2015 World Conference.

May we respectfully invite the United Nations to be our primary and principal partner for this private-led event. We hope for your soonest assent and affirmation of positive determination.

Thank you very much.

Faithfully yours,

HMES

Martes, Disyembre 3, 2013

Forecasting with more confidence, issuing warning



If you warn them and they keep on sinning and refuse to repent, they will die in their sins. But you will have saved your life because you did what you were told to do. If good people turn bad and don't listen to my warning, they will die. If you did not warn them of the consequences, then they will die in their sins. Their previous good deeds won't help them, and I will hold you responsible, demanding your blood for theirs. But if you warn them and they repent, they will live, and you will have saved your own life, too. . . Some of them will listen, but some will ignore you, for they are rebels.
For I was hungry, and you didn't feed me. I was thirsty, and you didn't give me anything to drink. 43 I was a stranger, and you didn't invite me into your home. I was naked, and you gave me no clothing. I was sick and in prison, and you didn't visit me.' 44 "Then they will reply, 'Lord, when did we ever see you hungry or thirsty or a stranger or naked or sick or in prison, and not help you?' 45 And he will answer, 'I assure you, when you refused to help the least of these my brothers and sisters, you were refusing to help me.'


Self-doubting prophecy

For nearly five years ago today, we have been goading the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to enhance its satellite capability instead of simply getting hand-me-down issuances from UN OOSA (United Nations Outer Space Affairs and the NOAA (United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the other geospatial information and intelligence agencies all over the world.

At a certain point in time around the period of the occurrence of the devastation by tropical storm Ketsana (Ondoy) in the Philippines, the PAGASA was clamoring for the purchase and installation of its doppler radar system, an outmoded and unreliable system for weather forecasting.

In 2010, all throughout the government circuit, the company of Mr. Philip King called AAA, went on a lecture-presentation effort to sell the sensing and image capture technology developed by a Malaysian scientist and technology specialist who was also engaged in a similar high technology, extensive venture for the government of Canada, among other countries.

Had the Department of Science and Technology considered using a network of sensing stations with clear-photo capture capability on a 1-camera-per-station (or possibly a cluster of cameras), weather forecasting in the country, aided with charity hand-outs from NOAA, UNOOSA, the European Union, among other satellite capable agencies, will definitely be more precise at the same time vivid and viewable in real time.


It was foreseen in this site that absolutely nothing will be allowed by Typhoon Ketsana (Ondoy) to block its path. As early as the morning of the raging of this typhoon that PAGASA decided to merely attribute the powerful rains and killer floods to monsoons, it was already the consensus among the advocates that started this site that many people will die by Ketsana (Ondoy).

What kind of weather forecasting transpired during Typhoon Ketsana (Ondoy) was that by 10:00 AM up to 12:00 noon, PAGASA continued to refuse to declare even a Storm Signal No. 1 for Metro Manila and Rizal Province even at the height of severe rainfall, destructive and killer floods hitting entire subdivisions in Marikina and parts of Rizal, large areas in the urban center of the national capital.

In real time, it was being recommended strongly by this site that a state of calamity and state of emergency already be declared by the Office of the President.

When the media started reporting, albeit belatedly, that some people were reportedly getting killed by Ondoy, it may have dawned on PAGASA that their forecast needed to be amended. Nearing nightfall when panic and frenzy hit the public due to massive negative reports reaching media and feedback filtering through to the lower and highest levels of government, PAGASA relented and finally announced Signal No. 1. It was too late, Malacanang was then preparing to announce a serious state of calamity for the entire Metro Manila including parts of Rizal.

Hundreds died in Provident Village in Marikina. Hundreds died inside a popular Mall at the Riverside commercial complex built beside the huge Marikina River. Still hundreds others were swept by raging waters or seriously injured by stampeding objects and died instantly or were killed by being in the flood and unable to get help for their injuries.

The Haiyan (Yolanda) Fiasco

If the PAGASA did actually issue a warning, albeit introvertedly and timidly, about the storm surge in coordination with the rest of government, the evidence of the storm surge warning only appears at 5:00 AM on d-day, three hours before the storm surge has hit Tacloban City on November 8, 2013 in the national disaster risk reduction agency (NDRRMC) Advisory called Severe Weather Bulletin No. 6.

Still and all, much, much earlier that day, Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) already passed through Tolosa, Leyte and hit neighboring towns beginning its slew of devastations across the entire length of nine Regions of the Philippines.

The NDRRMC Bulletin stated that:
"Residents in low-lying and mountainous (sic) under signal #4, #3, and #2 are alerted against storm surges which may reach up to 7-meter wave height (sic)."
ACTIONS TAKEN 
o   NDRRMC Operations Center disseminated Severe Weather Bulletin No. 6 on Typhoon "Yolanda" to all OCD Regional Centers through SMS and facsimile and uploaded on the NDRRMC website for further dissemination to their respective local disaster risk reduction and management councils (LDRMMCs) from the provincial down to the municipal levels 
o   Directed RDRRMCs concerned through the OCD Regional Centers to undertake precautionary measures in their areas of responsibility (AOR) and subsequently advised local DRRMCs to initiate pre-emptive evacuation of families in low-lying and mountainous areas if situation warrants.

Had the one preparing the Severe Weather Bulletin (SWB) not merely cut and paste from one SWB to the next as can be observed in the various and different advisories issued by the NDRRMC, it must have been possible to introduce some new wording into these so-called severe bulletins.

The NDRRMC should have issued directives instead of the de cajon ACTION TAKEN jargon of "take precautionary measures." The directives could have contained marching orders coursed through the Regional Disaster Risk Reduction Management Councils (RDRRMC) of which the following are members, such as:

1. Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP)
In connection with the warning of the threat of 21-foot or 7-meter high wave height as stated above, the AFP is hereby ordered to undertake, without need of callback and setoffs, forced evacuation to higher ground of all affected elements and population. . . This is not a drill.

2. Philippine National Police (PNP)
In connection with the warning of the threat of 21-foot or 7-meter high wave height as stated above, the PNP is hereby ordered to provide all manner of assistance to the AFP in the forced evacuation of all affected Service elements and population to higher ground, without need for callback and set off. This is not a drill.

3. Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD)
In connection with the warning of the threat of 21-foot or 7-meter high wave height as stated above, you are hereby ordered to comply with the forced evacuation order issued to AFP and PNP and to provide all manner of assistance and coordination with all affected officers and personnel of your agency and every item of relief designated for the evacuees, without any need for callback and set off. This is not a drill. . . .

Just because the so-called Severe Weather Bulletin, did not emphatically state to forcefully execute an evacuation to safer ground, people who were caught by the storm surge unaware, got drowned and helplessly died under these 21-foot high waves from storm surges.

In Ground Zero in Tacloban City, two sets of 20-foot high waves converged from opposite directions to create more or less 40-foot high deluges. Even several hundred-ton to several thousand-ton ships were lifted by these approximately 15-meter high waves and brought into the ground in Tacloban City.

If multiple thousand ton objects such as ships, as in the Japan tsunami of 2011, could be lifted by the storm surge into the ground in Tacloban City, it would have been impossible for many people to survive the power and strength of the raging waters, accompanied by the stampede of debris from everything that the flash floods caught along the way.

All the rest of the highly authoritative Severe Weather Bulletins of NDRRMC do not contain a definitive order to evacuate nor even a redundant very stern warning about storm surge and a powerful order to vacate unsafe ground to ensure one's safety and survival.




Next: Reissuing call for a paradigm shift         





Linggo, Disyembre 1, 2013

Epitaph to the Hyogo Framework 2005-2015

Part 1 of a series

A Hyogo Framework murdered by obsolescence


With all the resources the United Nations wields, there will always be issues on whether its issuances, promulgations and declarations of various names and types meet with the compliance of its member states on a ratio of at least 1:50. However, the more realistic figure may be 1:150 or higher. That for every 150 issuances, only one out of 150 member countries religiously abides by its issuances must be painful to admit.

But this does not harm the United Nations in any way, for whether the members act like delinquents, the UN shall continue to exist as long as the members keep paying their dues.

About two years from this date, the latest framework on disaster risk reduction made by the UN in a grand event called Second United Nations World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, will expire. It has to give way to a so-called successor framework.

At that point, the UN will have to come up with the successor framework, hopefully containing new material that will detail how to mitigate risks of calamities like Yolanda. The Third United Nations World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction to replace the Hyogo Framework for Action for Disaster Risk Reduction, will be held in Sendai, Japan, several prefectures away from where the predecessor Hyogo Framework was crafted.

If only for the occurrence of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, the second and now the third World Conference is being in the same country one more time. However, following what transpired in that country during the earthquake-tsunami and in the Philippines, during and in the aftermath of Yolanda, it can be said that the framework promulgated at the Hyogo Prefecture conference is more or less dead, killed by its obsolescence.

This Hyogo framework died before its successor was born. Thus again, we make this call, prior to or coinciding with the Sendai conference, that the United Nations considers pushing through with our strongly advocated focused disaster and environmental hazards summit.

Why the need to host a focused disasters and environment hazards mapping conference.

The question of whether the various United Nations platforms for disaster risk reduction has done anything to prevent even at least half, or better, more than 50% of the casualties of recent disasters can only be answered in the negative.

The conference tickler of the United Nations for the Third United Nations Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction states:
Third United Nations World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015
Subject to an anticipated decision of the UN General Assembly later in 2013, the Third United Nations World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR) is to take place in Sendai City, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan, from 14 to 18 March 2015 (five days inclusive). 
Hosted by the Government of Japan in cooperation with the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), as secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, the WCDRR will review the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action and is expected to adopt a successor framework for disaster risk reduction. 
The post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction will build on the knowledge and practice developed through the implementation of the International Framework for the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction of 1989, the Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action of 1994, the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction of 1999 and the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters. Pursuant to General Assembly resolution 66/199, UNISDR will continue to ensure extensive and inclusive multi-stakeholder consultations for a post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction.
When tropical cyclone Ketsana (Ondoy) happened in the Philippines in 2009, it was fervently pushed that a focused conference solely devoted to crisis mapping be held in Manila in 2010. A perfunctory interest was shown by the United Nations, but the Philippines’ national government displayed absolute ignorance of how to treat such a project.

It took a prodding from the Joint United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)United Nations Office for the Coordination for Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA) Environmental Emergencies Unit to their point person in the Philippines for the Maritime Industry Authority (MARINA) – of all agencies in the entire Philippine government to write an inquiry email on what the conference was all about and to describe the role played by the spokesman of Mrs. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo – the MARINA head, Ms. Elaine Bautista as point person for UN International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) in the Philippines.



(Photo credits: The Big Picture, Boston.com)

If countries follow the Hyogo Framework for action and how they must sincerely make assessments and forecasts, these scenes might never have happened in the way they are are now portrayed in these images above?

That this kind of reaction is expected of any slow-moving bureaucracy particularly like that of the Philippines where the dynamics are complicated by sudden wealth creation issues, was never a deterrent.

The campaign for hot-spots, crisis mapping has consistently been undertaken without relent by the proponents for a disaster and environment hazards mapping conference for slightly over twenty one years ago as of today.

However, by looking towards a potential base of support of a combine such as the UN, the insistence on what is comparatively speaking, too simplistic an approach that does not even do justice to staunch defenders of the concept of diplomacy, it appears that many lives in the future are doomed and a huge volume of valuables, crops can now be written off as part of the havoc wrought by calamity.

To make matters worse, despite the pronouncement of the Hyogo Framework for Action towards involving the private sector, most governments just like the Philippines, invite one or two friendly faces and hand out to them their appointment as Private Sector Representative in fancy paper in the spirit of promoting public-private sector cooperation. This does not suffice.

On the part of the private sector that is in practice indifferent to the affairs of state, to expect their representative to fulfill the function of providing the lead for their sector to form a solid front to work with government and their own constituents in contributing to disaster preparedness, not merely in doling out relief goods once a disaster already strikes, is wishing for miracles to happen.

Foreign owned corporations in the Philippines display a more pro-active attitude and take action accordingly, in comparison with their local counterparts. International institutions like the Asian Development Bank do the same. They go out of their way to enroll their key safety and emergency people to get training on disaster preparedness and emergency response. However, these actions are done, more in self-preservation. The foreign establishments are quick to react when crisis strikes and their donations flow towards government agencies whose key actors then take liberty in selling the relief items to retail outlets like malls and stores and spend the financial for the improved comfort of their businesses and homes.

Moreover, in the post-disaster period, private sector supposedly must also be encouraged to share in the lead in rebuilding communities destroyed by calamity. Yet this is many light years away from becoming reality unless our advocacy bears fruit with very short notice.

Notwithstanding these, it is still imperative to look into the primordial importance of focused hazards mapping, beyond its lowly assignation in a long and winding document purporting to be the gospel of worldwide hazards mitigation, prepared as it is by the United Nations World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction.

While it is true that the proponents of highly focused hazards mapping for disaster risk mitigation purposes suffered resource short falls, had the UN recognized after Typhoon Ketsana (Ondoy) that the idea of centering upon crisis mapping was viable and necessary, from that period in 2009 to the present, so much could already have been done to mitigate casualties, loss of property, valuables, and livelihood sources as well as homes for a great number of people.

The reason for the uneventful and unintended loggerheads with the UNISDR's sensible campaign for community resiliency is simply that if hard facts and science are factored into the equation, there are unavoidable situations where relocation must come before simply strengthening the resiliency of a community or a single or cluster of vital structures.

However, it is regrettable that just because some quarters are slow to pick up, what happened in Tacloban City, other areas severely hit by super typhoon Yolanda, had to happen.

                                                                  > > 2    > >3

Biyernes, Nobyembre 22, 2013

Letter to the UN Secretary General

Open Letter to the United Nations


November 21, 2013

HIS EXCELLENCY
BAN KI MOON
Secretary General
The United Nations
UN Headquarters
First Avenue at 46th Street
New York, NY 10017
USA


Dearest Secretary General Ban:


Our warmest greetings!

Kindly please understand, I had seriously debated on whether to send this communication to you or not. I decided on going through with it since I believe that the result would turn out for the better. Nothing that transpired in the past has diminished nor degraded my respect and love for the UN. I have no intention in demeaning anyone's position or creating anything negative between myself, my group and the UN even if that can't be helped, but this has to be done, and I shall humbly embrace the consequences of my act. More > >


Huwebes, Oktubre 24, 2013

Scheduled Visit to Zamboanga and Cebulindol-Boholindol Areas

We have scheduled a work-and-fun trip to Zamboanga City and then to Bohol and Cebu to gather actual data on the man-made and natural disasters that occurred in these places.

We will keep you posted on the results of our trip and our findings during these visits.

Here is hoping that we can elicit as much cooperation and kind assist from the locals in these areas. We believe that out of the data we can cull a good number of ideas that will be helpful in the organizing of the Disaster and Environmental Hazards Mapping conference we hope will push through this year or in the year 2014.

It is foreseen by the scientific community that any vestiges of major calamities may occur or be observed during the remaining months of 2013; the next year will be a definite lull and the next period to watch out vigilantly for any solar and earth movements with be 2015. Let us all hope that forecasts and predictions are merely that, forecasts and predictions.

That they will never have to happen at all.

Huwebes, Oktubre 17, 2013

hazmapping.com: Sympathy for BohoLindol, CebuLindol victims

We wholeheartedly sympathize with all our brothers and sisters in Bohol, Cebu, Leyte, Samar, among many others who were severely affected by the Killer Earthquake, that we call The Great Big BohoLindol and we are posting this call by the Disaster, Hazards Mapping Program Group (Hazmapping) for the government to start paying serious attention to the needs of the public volcanology-seismology sector starting now.

Source: http://www.hazmapping.com


From over 40 casualties, the death toll has risen to nearly 100 in the Carmen, Bohol Province-Cebu City earthquake. At that figure, the Carmen-Cebu tremor can qualify as a Killer Quake. Cebu and nearby areas has to be declared to be in a state of calamity. There are limited manuevers that aircraft can make at the Cebu airport due to the cracking and opening up of the airport's runways.

The six million dollar question is: how many more incidents like those in Carmen, Bohol and Cebu City and the other ones in Leyte, Samar will we be expecting?

Were the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Philvolcs) prepared adequately enough with equipment to monitor ground movement, tectonic plate disturbance, the nearly 100 deaths could have been avoided. 27 Billion Philippine Pesos is earmarked for pork barrel in the 2014 General Appropriations Act out of a total expenditure program of 2.26 Trillion Philippine Pesos. Would it be difficult to allocate even half of that pork barrel budget for emergency preparedness, disaster risk reduction, equipment upgrade?

Past Warnings of Big Disaster

This site has been warning the public for more than four years since the time of the former President, Mrs. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. Due to the total torpedoing of the private sector (Corinthian Gardens, Forbes Park, Dasmarinas Village, the owners of high rise condominiums at the left side of EDSA southbound, among others), of the program for predicting highly lethal effects of a major tremor in Metro Manila and the replication of this effort in many urban areas in the country by the same sector in collusion with some corrupt officials in the government, a large disaster and environmental hazards summit was proposed to be supported by the Philippine Government and the United Nations, among other institutions from many other sectors - including the non-profit (minus the Napoles et al NGOs).

Wanting responses

It is reiterated that in the time of Mrs. Arroyo, only the then Administrator of the Maritime Industry Authority (MARINA), Ms. Elaine Bautista, now Mrs. Horn, had the small effort to make an email message to the proponents of the 2010 Disaster and Environmental Hazards Mapping Summit. And that was only because the United Nations Environment Programm (UNEP)  told the former Ms. Bautista to get in touch with HMES 2010 organizing group. At the time, concurrent to her post in MARINA, Ms. Bautista was considered a friend of UNEP and a significant point person for the Philippine Government in relation to selected UNEP concerns - particularly about emergency and assistance.

When Mr. Benigno Simeon Cojuangco Aquino 3rd became President, the organizing group wrote to Ms. Corazon Juliano Soliman of the Department of Social Welfare and Development and Gen. Voltaire Tuvera Gazmin. Ms. Soliman did not respond. It was noticed however that several days later, Gen. Gazmin, the Secretary of the Department of National Defense gave an interview to national media.

In that interview, when Gazmin was asked about what the people should do when a disaster strikes, he replied: "Run for your lives."

Carrying the barest minimum luggage in their bodies, the poor, helpless people in above photos must have taken advice similar to that of Gen. Voltaire Gazmin's to leave and forget belongings elsewhere and to "run for your lives."

It will appear that the kind of response the government has given is exceedingly wanting in substance. It is hoped however that as a grandfather and parent, Gazmin to no fault of his own was merely showing his personal concern for the safety of the life of the average citizen. He was probably very well-meaning and was admonishing the people not to bring their television sets, beds, furniture, cash safety vaults, washing machines, cabinets, sofa, stoves with their fuel gas tanks, desk-stand-ceiling fans, air conditioners, desktop computers and refrigerators outside of their homes and instead to proceed to a more safe location and be saved in time of major catastrophe.
















The head of the Philvolcs, Dr. Renato Solidum absolutely cannot be faulted and is blameless. For decades, had been ready to accept the support for equipment upgrade and modernization. Despite the billions of funds allocated to the departments of the government, the great oversight of perpetually forgetting to take care of the Philvolcs modernization programme has consistently been committed by this government.

Despite the billions lost for the personal enrichment of selected persons in our public sector and their intimate partners in very enterprising undertakings in the private sector, no one has shown keen interest in allowing the Philvolcs to finally get hold of the adequate funding for acquisition of hardware and software that will highly increase its forecasting accuracy and its earthquake trending studies and research on the major faults all over the country. Click here for more.

#earthquake #Visayas earthquake #Philippines #disaster #Bohol #Cebu