Environmental Risks, Forecasting
The forecast of members of the scientific community that massive casualties will be experienced in the next big disaster that will hit the Philippines is accurate.
One of the greatest concerns is that the target of the next big one is the Philippines national capital region: Metropolitan Manila.
With a nighttime population of more than 12 million, in daytime Metro Manila has a population volume of nearly 20 million or higher during peak seasons.
Metro Manila is also home to many international agency headquarters such as the Asian Development Bank and all the home offices of foreign embassies are located in the capital region.
Too many factors can account for the exactitude and correctness of the prediction of massive casualties – not the least amongst them, the lack of state-of-the-art data and information ferreting equipment. Scientific expertise and knowhow in the use of new technology for tidal wave, weather, seismic event, volcanic eruption forecasting is not necessarily lacking in the Philippines.
However, it must be conceded that the Philippines does not have enough or adequate experience in handling satellite launch, management and earth observation operations.
To compound the problem ten-folds it is learned through the media, that intervention by interest groups in purveying vital data to the public about earthquake faults, the shameless impunity with which big companies are shunting regulations against building big structures on top of sites highly vulnerable to earthquake faults, also compound the danger of the Philippines suffering a large multitude of people getting killed during a big disaster incident involving the shaking of the Marikina West Valley Fault System.
Geohazards Mapping
In hindsight, a considerable number of people victims lost their lives in various disasters in the Philippines, not the least of which is tropical storm Ketsana (Ondoy) in October 2009. In Ondoy’s flash floods, many casualties died in the supposed comfort of their own homes. A large number of shoppers died in a famous unit of a Super Mall chain that was constructed in Barangay Barangka, Marikina Philippines beside the Marikina River – one of the areas worst hit by raging floodwaters. Unfortunately, environmental risks are neglected not only by private companies building structures in unsafe areas, but also the public sector.
An advocacy in 2008 by the International Resource Recovery Movement – a group formed by CDHS(Centre di Humanes et Societas, Inc.) for crisis mapping was decided to be transposed into full-scale coordination of data, cooperation with the earth observation community and the geohazard community of practice, on valuable inputs, technology, towards better grasp of past, present and coming disasters.
Recently, due to Tropical Cyclone Haiyan (Yolanda), equivalent to a Category Level 5 Hurricane nearly 10,000 victims were killed in the devastation brought by this super typhoon on November 8, 2013. The Philippine experience resulted in the firm resolve of the advocacy group to pursue with greater vigor arriving at the definitive integrated risk map of the environment from earth observation, ground penetrating satellite and ground sensing data, benchmark hydrologic and geophysical data, among many other sources.
The end in view is to engage in geohazard mappingto help provide more accurate, timely and well-founded policy, decisions and execution thereof for disaster readiness or the mitigating existing risks in the environment such as the following:
Baguio Killer Earthquake July 16, 1990, at 4:26 PM | 1,621 killed |
Mt Pinatubo Eruption June 15, 1991 | 847 killed |
Ormoc Flash Floods (Thelma/Uring) November 5, 1991 | +-5,080 killed. (the figure became much higher after several months) |
Bohol-Cebu Earthquake October 15, 2013, at 8:12 a.m. | 222 killed; 8 missing; 976 injured |
Tropical hurricanes
TD Winnie (2004; 893 casualties) | TY Frank (2008; 557 casualties) |
TY Reming (2006; 734 casualties) | TS Pepeng (2009; 465 casualties) |
TS Ondoy (2009; 464 casualties) | TY Reming (2000; 114 casualties), and |
TY Nanang (2001; 236 casualties) | TY Basyang (2010; 102 casualties) |
TY Milenyo (2006; 213 casualties) | TY Sendong (2011; 2,400 casualties) |
TY Feria (2001; 188 casualties) | TY Yolanda (2013; +-10,000 casualties) |
To generate credible bulletins, advisories and warnings to the public that whether or not will be believed by the receiver, is cause enough for authorities to evacuate potential calamity victims to safer ground - even employing benign force prior to disaster. This effort in its entirety seeks to define new paradigms and strategies to enhance environmental risk mitigation and prevent loss of life as well as property from disasters. Or reduce such loss from present environmental hazards that can claim precious lives of as many victims as possible.[1]
Global Network of Geohazards
The need to develop better approaches to mapping risks and dangers to communities in the Philippines or any other country for that matter cannot be overstated. Correlating such risks with hazards in neighboring or even fairly distant countries that are linked together within the world geohazard system (WGS) or global geohazard system (GGS) is the agenda of the geohazard mapping and environment conference (HMES) in Manila originally conceived in 2009.
As water seeks its own level, most if not all, hydrogeologic and meteorologic risks, among several environmental hazards of its kind, have a way of interconnecting - in the sense that the world is chopped up into a whole lot of boundaries while hazards challenge all manner of boundaries.
Geophysical scientists, aware of such realities, persist to engage in more focused research directed towards a comprehensive mapping and monitoring of a particular hazard zone. With other fellows engaged in similar research and sensing in other sites, sharing, comparing and correlating findings become a way of gradually integrating the more thorough and complete portrait of the world network of geohazards.[3]
A fault like the Philippine fault[4], or the San Andreas fault might be known to lie across the length of the target geographic location but is not necessarily limited to the area.
By stroke of circumstance, the organizers of the highly valued ESA-NASA International Geohazards Workshop in 2007 excluded Philippines in the invitations. While other very extensive gatherings were held in latter dates where the Philippines was represented, it must be said that the value of the international geohazards workshop by the ESA-NASA in Italy cannot be discounted.
Workshops on earth observation could help Philippine scientists and technology experts as well as network Filipino geohazard specialists with the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). The Committee has the ultimate capacity of providing ground penetrating and earth observation data about seismologic events, unnatural potential hydrologic threats, outer space data on tropical storms, typhoons and so on.
Classic example of ignoring deadly geohazard
Sixteen years ago the World Bank (WB) supported a study in the latter half of the 1990s on the Philippine Fault System with millions of US Dollars. One of the focal concerns of the research was the Marikina Fault System.
The findings of the research were detailed in the Final Report prepared through the partnership of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), of the Department of Science and Technology and a private contractor.
It became a furor over national media following the Bohol 7.2 magnitude seismic event in October 15, 2013 that a large number of companies have been building skyscrapers and big buildings on top of the path of the Marikina West Valley Earthquake Fault System. Accordingly, since early 2013 when the issue became popular, too many media statements have been given particularly by engineers of big companies undertaking these heavy constructions over the West Valley Fault. The most common is the apologist line that: “We did not know about the information on the earthquake fault until after we began and completed our design and construction.”
The data and the real path of the West Valley Fault has never been revealed to the public.[5]
The public sector on the other hand, went overboard, by giving building permits to these companies. The role of Phivolcs, that was originally tasked with the funding of the World Bank as earthquake fault mapper, has been relegated instead to being at the receiving end of mapping expertise that will be provided by the Department of Environment and Natural Resources attached agency – the Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB).
Call for international cooperation, sharing
HMES is a call for international cooperation, sharing of these valuable data. As stated in scientific papers such as China and many others, the dynamics and the history of geophysics data, apart from hydrologic studies and seismic research as well as outer space earth observation information is such that they are hardly shareable.
This was largely due to deep rooted restrictions by interest groups with a bias for mining, mineral development or insurance risk management. But much has changed over the years and with the advent of modern tools, faster communication and transfer of big volumes of data, significant geophysical information can no longer be concealed and it has acquired far too many applications and users that there is no way to hide all these earth related information any more.
Thus the resolve to invite as many members of the scientific community in Asia, Europe and America to come together in a working meeting to consolidate this information in a global geohazard system (GGS) map. This could augur for much better prepared participation in the coming United Nations Third World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR) in Sendai, Japan.
Developers and providers, owners of technology for geohazard mapping, outer space activity specialists, earth observation networks, were sought to help stage an attempt to compile this more comprehensive map of the system. (The global geohazard system for purposes of this discussion, is also referred to simply, as “the compilation.”)
The original conference date in Manila, Philippines that fell short of its target of 2010 was re-scheduled from the first to the second week of December 2014. Support of the CEOS and its member institutions is sought to enable all aspects of discussion and working meetings to be more meaningful.
Members of the world scientific community that are interested to participate are invited to prepare and submit papers relating to the question of compiling the full range of references for a global geohazard system, without being limited with particular criteria and parameters. Submission can be made by signing in and uploading the proposed papers to HMES Conference 2014 Papers with the address niche at the HMES event site on submission of technical papers.
GGS: What should be compiled, linked
As shown above, Supersites (earthquake sites) of the world scientific community has an interactive map showing areas where big earthquakes are predicted to happen.
This geohazard map of earthquakes should form one of the several overlaying or correlational maps to the standard globe map that details the portent of seismic events in the future.
Combined with a fully functional GIS on constantly updated sensing operations, monitoring of shifting (subduction, attenuation) of tectonic plates and other related inputs, this could form the seismic portion of the GGS.A hydrological section can be integrated into the GGS along with the seismic component.
This includes aspects relating to tsunami, tidal waves, liquefaction, flash floods and percentage probabilities of debris or log stampedes, among many other factors.
Meteorologic events should be integrated as an integral section, intimately tying up the data on these occurrences with the hydrologic section. As such, typhoon or cyclone and hurricane, tornado, tropical storms, need to be integrated into as well into the GGS, portraying the past, historical paths of these powerful meteorological incidents and incidents and tracing the probabilities of their occurrences when either normal or sub-normal stimuli are bound to cause them to hit target populations.
Sections on forest, subsea activity, and overall earth crust and sub-surface movements -- whether considered normal or otherwise, should also be integrated into the GGS.
Other sections that will be necessary as well are those that relate to living organisms. Specific GIS on animal and insect migrations, tracking data on micro-organisms that could spawn outbreak of disease -- whether or not in relation to disasters, among many other significant data should be compiles as part of GGS.
The GGS differs from the Group on Earth Observation System of Systems in that the function of said system is very broad and does not specifically intend to simply compile a GIS map relevant to disaster but to so many issues and subjects that are touched by earth observation. GGS is a very focused effort and specifically concentrates on early warning systems for all communities that will be rendered vulnerable to a coming catastrophic event, a number of which could have tragic effects such as wiping out entire populations in specific coverage areas. Despite its years of existence, GEOSS has never been able to do anything positive about minimizing the casualty at Sendai, Fukushima, Haiti and Tacloban City tragedies. The GGS is proposed precisely to correct that flaw.
Background of HMES Project
Crisis Mapping
In 2008 the HMES proponents determined to create a full-function Crisis Mapping project. This was borne out of the persistent eruption of hostilities in Southern Philippines between both communist - Islamist groups on one side and the government on the other. Fresh from the experience at confronting an incorrigible troublemaker such as the Juma'a Abu Sayyap, or more popularly known as Abu Sayyaf, the proponents resolved to push stakeholders to join in formulating the Philippine conflicts crisis map.
This is modeled after the U.S.-Euro academe's successful crime and peacekeeping mapping efforts that had led to wide acceptance and invited broad-based support from as many sectors and as many countries as possible.
After all, the value of life is such that people and institutions, states and combines will pay as high a price as possible for the safety of both individuals and enclaves of people.
Changed Parameters
One year later, the entire universe for the crisis mapping project had changed. It cannot be called a drastic change since the new directions fell within range of long-held advocacies and persistent efforts. The proponents had begun such efforts by provoking officials at the Department of National Defense to modernize.
Among the sources for concepts and ideas of the proponents’ papers given to the department was an executive formerly engaged as part of a service provider group at a Saudi Arabia military base. The Saudi military and government, thanks to their foreign high-tech service providers in the late 80s were already advanced in the use of GIS, the digitization of all documents, exploiting satellite information among many things.
With various other inputs from visiting colleagues coming from different parts of the globe, the advocacy for a fully functional satellite research, GPS and GIS-ready system was pushed at defense department, the National Security Council and at the Department of Transportation and Communications through the suggestion of the administrative officer of the defense secretary.
A large number of milestones were achieved in all of these, one of which was the formulation of the 10-year framework for aerospace concerns and civil aviation development in the Philippines.
Ultimately this led to the privatization of the Air Transportation Office that is now the more corporate-run Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines (CAAP).
Another is the passing of the enabling law for the National Transport Safety Board - patterned from the NTSB model of the United States. Many other small accomplishments were also made along the way, until the shift of our mindset from conflicts mapping into environmental or geohazards mapping. On both these milestones, a company in the United States was the most instrumental of all and provided all the support needed.
Geohazard Mapping
That year in 2009 following the terrorist siege at Sulu Province where staff of the International Committee on the Red Cross (ICRC) were abducted by well-connected civilians that turned over the victims to the Juma'a Abu Sayyap for higher stakes in ransom collections, the need for crisis mapping was overshadowed by the critical want for forecasting natural (or even human-made) catastrophes.
While it cannot be discounted that the fighting vs. terror is a universal concern, that political conflicts leading to war is a serious matter, it had to be conceded that disasters ruled the day. When the proponents were running after the terrorists in Sulu Province, one of the laughable incidents was overrunning several camps of the Abu Sayyap simply because they were watching over the boxing match of Manny Pacquiao. You can never do that in a disaster.
When strong rains arrived in Sulu, selected Abu Sayyaf terrorists went down from their lairs pretending to be civilians and acted like very well-behaved refugees in the evacuation centers. Thus it was decided, the shift from conflict flashpoints, crisis mapping will be done in favor of geohazards mapping. (In Quezon Province and Mindoro, among other places, the Philippine communists do the same.)
So the decision was made, it was to be geohazard mapping in place of crisis mapping.
References:
Acknowledgments:
Some, but not all of those that gave us inspiration and support for this undertaking are most heartily thanked for whatever contributions were obtained from them, in one way or another. These institutions are listed below, not in any kind of order. We will provide a more complete list during the conference proper in 2014.
Saudi Arabia Royal Air Force, Ministry of Defence
Themes: Climate Change, Disaster, Ecology, Environment hazards, Forecasting, Geohazards, Mapping, killer quake, earth observation, earthquake, earthquake faults, flood, GGS, Global, hydrology, imagery, information, liquefaction, mapping, Mt. Pinatubo, Ondoy, public warning, satellite, seismology, storm surge, tidal wave, tsunami, typhoon, volcano, WGS, World geohazards system, Yolanda
[1] Informal settlements (slum areas) straddled on top of solid waste dumpsites (e.g. Payatas area, Quezon City, Philippines and Smokey Mountain, City of Manila, Philippines), are vulnerable to sudden sub-surface cave-ins. Social enclaves situated above very loose ground (e.g. Cherry Hills, Antipolo City, Philippines). In the Payatas incident around the year 2000, the sudden cave-in of the dumps beneath the community that built houses over solid wastes, killed more than 200 people. Many of those that died were children who got buried in debris and garbage.
[2]In the Philippine experience, causes of heavy casualties are raging flash floods and stampede of debris (Ondoy 2009, Ormoc flash flood 1991, Cagayan de Oro flash floods 2011), powerful storm surges (Yolanda 2013) and earthquakes (Bohol 2013, Baguio 1990), volcano eruption (Pinatubo 1991), landslides and tsunamis.
[3] Some of the highlighted processes that will be significant in compiling a full-function geo information system, geohazard system, not necessarily in their order of importance are as follows:
1. An integrated GIS on urban and suburban populations, hydro, forest, seismic, typhoon-tropical storm-hurricane, as well as shifting occurrences in human settlements, marine and forest life, etc. will be formulated (initiated is a better term for this GIS that will compile inputs across borders)
2. Geophysical data on earthquake faults: In place of non-available fault drillhole information at earthquake fault sites ground penetrating satellite data and related earth observation findings can be factored into the compilation
3. Non-extensive, aged hydrologic studies can be replaced with existing earth observation
4. Global Warming: a more comprehensive data on natural causes of warming will be factored into the GIS and the compilation
5. Resettlement-Relocation: geohazard tagging must be accompanied by concrete recommendations on new safer, buildable sites (e.g. in the Philippines, or elsewhere around the world)
6. Protocols for Early Warning, Evacuation of endangered population
7. Continuing effort in updating of the compilation
[4] The Philippine fault is connected to eastern Taiwan in the north, eastern Indonesia in the south and if further examined from the perspective of tectonics, tracing the path will cover both ends of the world from different routes just factoring interconnections between the plates - that all have a bearing on nearly every seismologic activity anywhere in the globe.
[5] All the findings were also printed in book form through a Hongkong-based foreign publishing-printing house. Supposedly as narrated by people directly involved in the project, the book was printed there as Hongkong press was equipped with state-of-the-art technology for printing maps on paper and other media.
The final product showed beautiful colored maps on high quality paper with multiple transparency overlays of Earthquake Fault lines in the Philippines. Of the majority of the copies of this book none could be accessed by the public. Reportedly, identified representatives of a wealthy village, the Corinthian Gardens et al, kept rounding the branches of the National Bookstore just to track down and buy all copies of the book detailing the World Bank funded research.
What is given to the Philippine and the international publics are purportedly new fault lines that the World Bank study did not identify in the 1990s; it is immensely possible that these publicly released fault maps are not accurate; hence, according to concerned experts being interviewed over national media, this situation places a huge number of people in grave danger. This includes the people working in the World Bank satellite office in Taguig City and the Asia arm of the WB – Asian Development Bank in Mandaluyong City both of which are either on top or near the top of the 1997 study-defined Marikina West Valley Fault System.
